Help Us Fight Cancer

The 2013 Pelotonia, a bicycle ride which raises money to fight cancer, is just under 3 months away, and WE NEED YOUR HELP.

Every dollar raised counts.  Every volunteer is precious. Every sponsor is needed.

What can you do to help? Anything to promote the cause. If you can afford it, or if you can afford to make a sacrifice, please donate any amount you can. Every $20 helps.

Here is a link to my profile, where you can donate and track our progress toward our goal of $1,601. [Currently we are at $300].

Click here for more information about my goal for this year’s ride, along with links and photos from last year’s ride.

Many of you stepped up to the cause last year and we need you to do the same this year. Thanks for your consideration.

Is Elon Musk Reading My Blog?

2013 Tesla Model S. It’s like sex on Christmas morning.

In February I wrote about my newfound passion for Elon Musk and the work he’s doing with Tesla Motors, Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX), and Solar City. Since then, it seems like a day doesn’t pass that I read something new about Musk & Tesla, usually hot off the presses.

Today I was pleasantly surprised to see headlines announcing that Musk is in talks with Google about working together to use Google’s “driverless” technology.

“Self-driving sounds like it’s going to do something you don’t want it to do,” Musk explained. “Autopilot is a good thing to have in planes, and we should have it in cars.”

Why was I surprised? Not because of the obviously awesome reason that autopilot in my car would be insanely cool, but because a Tesla + Google partnership was my idea! This obviously proves, without a shred of doubt, that Mr. Musk avidly reads my blog and must be just as impressed with me as I am with him.

Great minds.

Pelotonia 2013

Pelotonia 2012 was the first time that I rode a bicycle > 25 miles. It was an amazing experience from start to finish.

Not just the ride, but the entire process from deciding to ride to committing to fundraising,  to asking for donations and proudly watching the generosity of others pour in. We set a $1,200 goal and we smashed it.

And this was all before the opening ceremony. 

By the time the dust settled, we had contributed over $1,600 to our Peloton, Stephanie’s Team of Hope, and helped bring the Team Total to nearly $250,000!

That quarter of a million dollars was combined with every other Peloton and every other rider, volunteer, sponsor and contributor, to bring the 2012 Pelotonia total raised to fight cancer to an insane $16,871,403! (wiki)

In the four year history of this grassroots campaign, Pelotonia has attracted over 11,000 riders and has raised nearly $43,000,000, all of which has gone DIRECTLY TO FIGHT CANCER!

I will be riding again in 2013 (and hopefully for many years to follow.) This year’s ride is Saturday, August 10. Here is a link to my rider profile. My goal this year is 50 miles (Columbus to New Albany) which commits me to raising $1,250. However, because I fail to believe we’d actually raise less than last year, I am setting the goal at $1,601, to top last year and set precedent – we will raise more each year than the year before. Eventually, this stupid disease will be a distant memory as a result of our tenacity.

Please consider donating, sponsoring or volunteering. Every dollar helps.

Sex Scandal? How About A ‘Go Pound Salt’ Scandal.

The recent and unfortunate arrest of a former World Series of Poker Champion for (allegedly) soliciting sex has gotten way more attention than it ever should have. It is laughably insane to think that 1) other people’s sex lives make the news 2) prostitution, the oldest job in human history, is illegal in the USA.

Yes, I said “in the USA.”

While it will no doubt shock some people, they must learn that prostitution is legal all over the globe, and millions of people legally pay for sex every second of every hour of every day.

But if you pay for sex in the USA, and you’re remotely famous, look out. You’re toast.

What a joke. It’s laughable for so many reasons, not the least of which being that pornography is filmed in the USA all of the time, where men and women are drug and disease tested, and then paid to have sex.  This is done legally (and quite well from what I’ve been told) every day, yet somehow prostitution is still a crime. The sad irony is that keeping it illegal ensures it stays a black market, non-tested non-regulated industry.

If you’re thinking that this sounds familiar, it’s probably because it’s as laughably illogical as outlawing marijuana but legalizing tobacco and alcohol. The fact of the matter is that humans should be given freedoms to do as they please. Drugs? Sex? Booze? Great!

What do sex scandals really teach us? Check out this awesome post on NolanDalla.com for the best take I’ve ever read. If only everyone was this logical and open-minded.

Full Ring No Limit Cash Games

Since Hollywood Columbus opened in October 2012, I’ve had the opportunity to play much more full-ring no-limit hold ‘em. $1/2 and $2/5 are typically spread, and I’ve quickly come to hate $1/2. I’m convinced that it’s unbeatable for any hourly that makes it worth playing, and the pace is dreadful. However, since I am a former online MTT grinder with very little full-ring experience, I’m certainly not confident buying-in to $2/5 for a full 200 BB stack ($1k). Not only am I short the proper bankroll for that buy-in, I am not yet good enough at this limit to justify it.

To compromise, I’ve decided to buy-in short at $2/5 ($200-$300) and to play a basic short stack strategy. This includes lots of limp-shoving and limp-folding when I only have 40-50 big blinds.

I have about 193 hours of data in my PokerJournal and while I’m in the black, I know that have a lot of learning to do. MTTs are still my passion but they don’t even run until next month, and even so I’d like to be more rounded and improve my full-ring game.

I do not need the money I have in my poker bankroll (I am not playing for a living) and I am comfortable short-stacking $2/5. Because the table max is $1,000 or 100% of the big stack, whichever is greater, the game often plays more like $5/10 as stacks can average > $2k. This doesn’t really affect my strategy, other than I may get looked up lighter than average (which is fine by me because I usually have it.) Once I double or triple up, it makes the play more interesting (read: difficult) for me.

Because I’ve played a zillion 180 turbos, I’d like to think my push-fold game is fairly solid and that I can make mostly +EV plays in a cash game with a 40-50 BB stack and play an un-exploitable strategy. For example, a late position player might open to $25, and the button and small blind both call ($82 in pot). I jam $200 from the big blind with JJ. In this game, nearly all pairs and lots of hands like JTs+ will call here. Snap call actually. That hand really happened and my opponent mucked after the board ran out ace high. That hand played itself, however I could’ve easily made the same play with a much wider range, and gotten 3 snap folds, while picking up tons of dead $.

While I feel a solid pro/reg can play nearly perfectly against this strategy, there are enough random people who are bad not as experienced that I can take advantage of. In a game where we want to minimize our mistakes and maximize our opponents’ mistakes, I believe that playing this strategy can be profitable and fun. While some regulars seem to have an issue with it, others seem to love it (especially when I donk ship into them).

I plan on posting hands, thoughts, observations, & questions here, as well as my inquiries to some of the games better players & writers. Guys like Bart Hanson, Ed Miller & Dusty Schmidt come to mind.

The People Fund

Years ago, I swore off investing in individual stocks. I seemed to have a knack for the “buy high, sell low” strategy that I’ve learned inevitably accompanies most stock tips received from a friend’s dad’s buddy’s cousin’s neighbor.

Buy high, sell low?

Ironically enough, the only stock tip I’ve ever given out, Las Vegas Sands (LVS) circa late 2008, skyrocketed from ~$3/share to over $50/share shortly after Sheldon Adelson, its chairman, chief executive officer and principal stockholder, and his family, completed an investment in the company of $475 million in convertible senior notes in a private transaction.

How much did I make on the Sands?

Zero.

I didn’t buy a single share for myself. FML.

Thankfully some people I know cashed in so it wasn’t a total loss.

Adelson wasn’t going to let the Sands fail. While I couldn’t be certain of that, I used basic logic and common sense to deduce that if he believed it was worth $475m of his own money, it must have plenty of upside. And it did.

Frankie & Joey? Boom.

Wikipedia describes Adelson as a “business magnate,” or an “entrepreneur who has achieved wealth and prominence from a particular industry.”

Elon Musk of SpaceX, Tesla Motors & Solar City

I have recently been turned on to another business magnate, one who I believe will achieve prominence in at least 2 more industries. Elon Musk is the founder of SpaceX & the co-founder of PayPal and Tesla Motors. He is also the Chairman of Solar City. He reminds me of a younger, slightly more motivated Richard Branson (and if you know Sir Richard, you know it’s basically impossible to be more motivated than him.)

Sir Richard Branson

After reading everything I can get my hands on about Musk, I’ve been inspired to create a small “mutual fund” for myself, centered around men and women like Musk, Branson, & Adelson. The idea is to accumulate shares and hold long-term with the belief that these people simply won’t let their companies or ideas fail. I’m investing in the people more than any metric or statistic. I have named the fund, “The People Fund.”

I believe that over the next 30 years, men & women like Elon Musk will continue to build great companies, and when they do, I’ll be there to add shares to The People Fund. I will also add shares of companies that do a lot of business or have long-term contracts with Musk and Branson’s companies. This also helps with diversification. Unfortunately, Branson’s Virgin Group is a privately held conglomerate. It looks like Virgin Media was recently acquired by a private fund for $16b. It would’ve been nice to own Virgin Media a month ago. Virgin Group is a shareholder of Virgin Media.

Starting with $1,500 I have purchased shares of Solar City, Tesla Motors, & Panasonic. I’ll re-invest periodically to dollar cost average, and I’ll constantly be on the lookout for more companies/people to add to the Fund’s Watch List. So far, I can’t find a way to invest in SpaceX, a privately held company. I do not believe there is one, however there are rumors of a SpaceX IPO in 2013.

Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) is now trading > $39/share, up from its $15 IPO a few years ago. It is heavily shorted and I agree it may correct down to the $30-$35 range (or lower) this year. Alternatively, it may start to move up and never look back as Tesla is just starting to be cash-flow positive and profitable. There are lots of people short on this stock and lots long as well. There are a lot of good reads about Tesla linked below, including the below quote:

“Tesla will likely deliver 20,000 cars in 2013. An optimist looking at reservations might imagine 30,000 Teslas this year.

Given an ASP of $80k a car, Tesla’s 2013 car business looks like $1.6 to $2.4 billion. Throw in another $200 million for drivetrains and services and this year’s top line might go as high as $2.6 billion. If Tesla achieves 25% gross margins and brings 10% to the bottom line, they might conceivably earn $260 million. With shares at $34.52, and a $3.93 billion market cap, that’s a 15.1 PE. Compare this with PEs of 9.6 for Ford and BMW, 9.3 for Daimler, 7.7 for General Motors and it’s hard to get excited about Tesla stock. An investor might even go short, and quite a few have.

Interest in Tesla is not about where they are, but about where they are headed. If Tesla disrupts the car business, they could end up selling 5 million mainstream cars a year at a $40k ASP, and if they bring 10% to the bottom line and have a PE of 9, their share price will be a tidy $1,582.70. Investors at the current price will see a 4,584% return. This is why the ‘longs’ buy when the ‘shorts’ sell.”

I am very excited to follow Tesla’s progress as they look to revolutionize driving as we know it. Wouldn’t a Tesla + Google partnership be something special?! I wouldn’t rule it out as Google is also in California, loves innovation, has plenty of cash and is already in the self-driving car business.

Solar City (NASDAQ: SCTY) is at $15.48, up from a $9 IPO price in Dec 2012. This company is quite new and I believe there is plenty of upside as Musk is the chairman and has personal funds invested. Because I believe in Musk, and I enjoy the idea of Solar Power, I will enjoy owning and following this stock.

Below are some links and a must-watch video.

Elon Musk in his own words

Is Elon Musk the new Steve Jobs?

3 reasons to love Tesla in 2013

Elon’s near-bankruptcy as told by Men’s Journal

How far can you go in a Tesla?

Fuel Cells vs EVs

Tesla: Long vs Short

Do you know of any other companies/men/women that fit this profile? Suggestions appreciated. I currently have Tesla partners Toyota and Daimler on my watch list.

I will periodically post updates, feedback and performance of The People Fund. Needless to say, I’m not responsible for any losses you might incur should you happen to piggyback my fund – however when it makes a bunch of money feel free to send me some.

The Monthly $500 Poker Tournament At Horseshoe Cleveland

My recent trip to Cleveland’s Horseshoe Casino blew away my expectations. It is everything I had envisioned for Columbus’ casino, before it was decided the Hollywood Columbus Casino would not be built downtown, but rather ~10 miles west. The Horseshoe Cleveland is in the heart of downtown Cleveland, amongst nightlife, bars, restaurants, stadiums, concert venues, arenas, hotels, convention centers, etc. It is everything that Columbus’ should be and more. The casino has already integrated itself into the scene and I’m certain it will become a mainstay.

Not to mention that the 3-level layout is gorgeous from top to bottom. The people from Caesar’s really know how to deliver a fine product. I only wish I had more time to explore the dining options.

The poker room was nice. The layout wasn’t what I expected but it works. I did not have time to play any full-ring $1/2 or $2/5 because I was in town to play the $500 Monthly Poker Tournament held on the last Sunday of each month.

The buy-in is $510 with $10 going to dealers and $50 to the house. The tournament starts at Noon and allows late registration for 1 hour. Levels are :45 and players get 9k in chips. While some key levels are skipped, we certainly had no problem with getting in plenty of play.

The dealing was pretty much fine. There were a few less experienced dealers, but no problems throughout the 10+ hours of play.

The quality of play was OK – my initial table was a dream – nice, older gentlemen and one young kid who was solid (but I had position on him). We played a fun hand early on and if I can find my notes, I will post it here along with some others.

During the run from 102 players down to 20, it amazingly only took ~ 5 hours. Equally amazingly is the fact that it took another ~ 5 hours to play down to the final table. We played 11 handed (5/6) for 2+ hours. With 18 players left the average stack was 50 BBs. Play was fairly tight/straight forward. After losing a few key pots, I fell < 20k and was able to more than triple my stack sans showdown.

The tournament was set to pay the top 9. Because of the “slow” pace of play, eventually everyone agreed to pay $100 (out of pocket) to give $550 to 11th and 10th. That didn’t really speed things up but it made people smile.

The official payouts were:
1- $14.7k
2- $9.6k
3- $5.9k
4- $4.3k
5- $3.2k
6- $2.5k
7- $2k
8- $1.8k (worst)
9- $1.6k

I’ll let you guess which one I got.

I’m looking forward to returning to the Horseshoe Cleveland.