Betting against Tesla is fine as freedom should allow for sovereign humans to do as they please with their money. For those loud voices constantly speaking about about Tesla, calling their tech “fraudulent” and their CEO a “charlatan,” I thank you for your engagement and have one simple question in reply: how much of your own money have you bet against Tesla? If you have not sold it short, or otherwise bet against it with your own money then you are just spouting useless words. Put your money where your mouth is or go away as you, not Elon, are the charlatan in this case.
For the rest of us who understand that transitioning to EVs is inevitable, we are happy to see electric vehicles becoming more mainstream. That said, it always amuses me when I see so many legacy companies releasing their plans for like 50 different EV models. Each one of these models would essentially require the equivalent of a Tesla Gigafactory, and as we know Tesla, the best in the world of getting a factory running from scratch, did it in 12 months in China and 24 months in the United States. Considering China was a freak thing it’s more likely that getting a factory of that size to start production is going to be closer to the 24 month end of the range. And then another 12 months minimum to ramp up to full production. That means that from groundbreaking, any company, including Tesla, is at least 36 months away from anything that could be considered remotely close to full production at a plant.
As of December 2022 this is a quick look at the EV plans of General Motors. Each one of these planned models will take YEARS ramp up. What will Tesla be doing during those years? The answer: putting millions of EVs on the road collecting billions of miles of data.
For all the other automakers that are not Tesla, they have no choice but to simply get going now, after all the best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, and the next best time is right now. However I think a lot of people are overlooking what is going to happen in the next three years while these other automakers ramp up: Tesla is going to put 10 million new vehicles on the road in those 36 months.
Why do I predict 10,000,000 new Tesla’s by 2025? Simple math. Tesla will sell ~1.5m vehicles in 2022 (we will have confirmation of this in January 2023.) Tesla is growing production by ~50% annually. Applying that growth rate over the next 3 years we can make a reasonable guess as to how production will go.
2023: 2.25M (rounding down to 2,000,000 to be conservative/allow for continued ramp of GigaTexas & GigaBerlin)
2024: 2M x 50% growth = 3,000,000 Tesla vehicles produced in 2024
2025: 3M x 50% growth = 4,500,000 tesla vehicles produced in 2025
2,000,000 + 3,000,000 + 4,500,000 = 9,500,000 Tesla vehicles produced by the end of 2025. Each and every one collecting invaluable data that is simply not being matched by any competitor. This data helps train the Tesla Neural Network which helps to extend Tesla’s technological advantage. There is simply no equivalent from any other automaker, and when you look at the numbers this way it is truly mind-boggling. While GM, Ford, Volkswagen & the rest have grand plans, none are working toward matching the scale & efficiency of Tesla Gigafactories & data collection. They are caught up in a way it’s been mentality and if they do not change course, it could be lead to very tough times for their businesses.
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